Introduction to Crypto Activity Surge with New Administration

Now with the new administration in place, there’s already been a flood of crypto activity all around the world. The capitalists are back in the house, innovation and growth are now the focus, and crypto is set to explode higher over the coming weeks and months.

Price Action on Bitcoin: Bouncing Within a Range

First up, let’s take a look at the price action and see what is going on. Price action on Bitcoin – the parallel around the $90,000 was a solid level of support. It’s been bouncing up and down this channel with runs and drops, a little fake-out to the downside, a little fake-out to the upside, but it’s still within this range.

Bitcoin’s Strong Start to the Year and Ethereum’s Struggles

Bitcoin has had a good start to the year. On a monthly chart, taking a measured move, Bitcoin is nicely up about 133%, so a very good start. Jumping to Ethereum, unfortunately, Ethereum is still waiting to catch a bid, still barely above break-even on the year.

Solana’s Surprising Performance Amidst Market Conditions

Now, we’ll discuss the main reason in a moment, but let’s just have a chat about Solana. With all the crazy stuff going on with the meme coins, Solana has started the year up just over 40%. Not all altcoins are struggling, but when looking across Coin-base, Avalanche, Ethereum, and others, the altcoin market in general has yet to catch fire. For the latest updates on crypto news, click here.

The Fed’s Balance Sheet and Its Impact on the Altcoin Market

The main reason is this: the Fed’s balance sheet. Ever since about February/March of 2022, the Fed has been doing QT (quantitative tightening) and reducing their balance sheet. This has been coming down now for 2022, 2023, 2024, and now 2025—almost 3 years of QT. This is probably the number one thing holding the altcoin market back.

Key Date to Watch: Fed Meeting on January 29th

Now, the date to watch: Friday the 24th, and the next Fed meeting is coming up very soon on the 29th. The big thing here is not necessarily what they do with rates—leaving the rates unchanged is expected. The big thing is: will Jerome Powell announce that QT is finally over? Because that is the remaining switch, the trigger that is going to fire up the altcoin market.

Bitcoin and Ethereum’s Performance in January 2025

Jumping into seasonality, Bitcoin for January is now up almost 12%, and Ethereum only 15%. This is really not like the post-halving year for Ethereum. If we take a closer look, 2021 was an 80% move, 2017 was a 32% move, so clearly Ethereum is struggling. This doesn’t mean it’s over for Ethereum. The cycle may just be pushed further back until QE gets going. That is the start of alt season, and it just means it’s more and more likely that we’ll get a longer cycle.

The Cycle and Potential for Ethereum’s Future

It doesn’t mean that it’s never going to happen. That is my humble 4-year cycle opinion. With this nice recent jump, it looks like this big correction is likely over.

The End of QT and Its Impact on the Market

This is the time to end QT, and this is what’s going to send the market soaring. This could enable a run of about 2 months of just pure, up, massive face-melting rallies. If it happens in both of the previous cycles, it just becomes more likely to happen.

Potential Mid-Cycle Top: March 23rd to Watch

The next thing on the radar is this piece here. As seen in the previous cycle, this is a mid-cycle top. This was a left-translated cycle, and it peaked at exactly this point before going into a big, deep correction. Then, two cycles ago, a very different route, but it also peaked out at the same point.

March 23rd: A Critical Date for the Cycle

This date is intriguing. This is where we could get a local top before a deeper correction. What exactly is this date? March the 23rd. If sell targets get hit by that point, this could potentially be the exit for this cycle. If there is a huge two-month rally where crypto goes crazy, this date is worth a close watch.

Recent Crypto Developments Around the World

In just the past week, there’s been a crazy amount of crypto developments. Trump signed an executive order for a crypto working group and banning CBDCs. They’re also going to be discussing whether they want to build a national digital assets stockpile.

Big Moves in Crypto Industry: SEC, Banks, and Global Adoption

Hester Peirce at the SEC stated that, with changes in leadership, SAB 121 has been repealed, allowing banks to hold digital assets on their balance sheets. This alone is potentially enormous for the crypto industry.

International Crypto Developments and Bank Moves

Standard Chartered, a banking giant in Europe, is debuting crypto services via its new Luxembourg entity after securing a license. Strive Asset Management filed for a Bitcoin bond ETF in Switzerland. Swiss state-owned bank PostFinance has launched Ethereum staking. Coinbase has launched a Bitcoin-backed loans product. Wyoming proposed a bill to promote crypto adoption. A Bitcoin strategic reserve bill was introduced by Oklahoma, and Massachusetts became the eighth state to propose a Bitcoin reserve.

Global Crypto Developments: From Thailand to Italy

In Thailand, they’re piloting a crypto payments product in Phuket. In Italy, the largest bank entered the crypto market with a million-dollar investment. A Dubai developer is planning a 17-story crypto tower, and a Bitcoin hotel is being developed in Tokyo.

Conclusion: Surge of Crypto Activity with New Administration

With the new crypto-friendly administration now in place, there’s been a flood of activity from all around the world. Solana has had an amazing start to the year, up 30% in just one month. Unfortunately, Ethereum is still waiting to catch a bid.

Four-Year Cycle Suggests a Potential Mega Rally

The four-year cycle suggests we could be on the verge of a mega two-month rally all the way to the end of March. With everything going on right now, the setup is looking perfect.

Conclusion

The crypto market is seeing significant growth under the new administration, with Bitcoin and Solana showing strong performance. Despite Ethereum’s struggles, the end of quantitative tightening could trigger a major rally for altcoins. Key dates and global developments further signal an exciting period ahead for the crypto industry. For more insightful information, click here.