GBP/JPY climbs above 194.50 as markets claw back ground after ‘Yenterventions’
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GBP/JPY climbs above 194.50 as markets claw back ground after ‘Yenterventions’

  • GBP/JPY finds fresh highs after “Yenterventions” knocked pair lower.
  • BoE rate call around the corner, UK GDP on Friday.
  • BoE expected to hold rates steady, Gov Bailey speech anticipated.

GBP/JPY is slowly grinding its way back up the chart after a pair of suspected “Yenterventions” by the Bank of Japan (BoJ), but thus far no official statements have been forthcoming. The Bank of England (BoE) delivers its latest rate call in the upcoming Thursday London market session, and the bank is expected to vote in an overwhelming majority to hold rates steady.

The BoE is forecast to vote 8-to-1 in favour of holding rates steady at the UK central bank’s meeting this week, with Dr. Swati Dhingra expected to be the lone voter for an early rate cut, in-line with the voting results from the BoE’s previous meeting. Dr. Dhingra, an external member of the BoE’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC), has been adamant that the UK central bank is drastically underestimating downside risks to the UK economy. A speech from BoE Governor Andrew Bailey will be delivering a speech 30 minutes after the MPC’s rate call.

Effects of suspected BoJ ‘Yenterventions’ are draining away

The BoJ is broadly believed to have stepped into global FX markets last week on two separate occasions after the Yen rose sharply last Monday and Tuesday. The BoJ remains tight-lipped on central bank operations to prop up the battered Yen (JPY), but BoJ operations reporting shows the Japanese central bank overspent on miscellaneous market operations by around nine billion Yen last week.

This Friday will round out the trading week with an update on UK Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth. Q1 UK GDP is expected to rebound to 0.4% QoQ after the previous quarter’s -0.3% decline.

GBP/JPY technical outlook

The Guppy is up around 1.6% from the recent bottom near 191.50 after the BoJ’s suspected “Yenterventions” as markets test the Japanese central bank’s resolve. The pair has clawed its way back above the 200-hour Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 193.94.

Despite a harsh knockdown that dragged the GBP/JPY down from a 34-year peak near 200.60, the pair is still firmly bullish, up over 8% from the year’s opening bids near 179.50.

GBP/JPY hourly chart

GBP/JPY daily chart